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ABSTRACT Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower‐mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition. 

Seedling demography data are provided in annual censuses of 600 seedling plots in an equatorial, ever-wet rainforest in eastern Ecuador, in Yasuní National Park. This long-term study uses standardized methodology from the Smithsonian ForestGEO network of plots, and in particular coordination with similar studies in Luquillo, Puerto Rico, and Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We address hypotheses about the maintenance of forest diversity and long-term variation, and link our data to companion studies of flowering and fruiting phenology and sapling and adult dynamics in the Yasuní Forest Dynamics 50-ha Plot. The project is ongoing, and additional data will be added as they are processed. 

Understanding the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of hundreds of species over small areas in tropical forest remains a challenge. Many tropical tree species are presumed to be functionally equivalent shade-tolerant species that differ in performance trade-offs between survival in shade and the ability to quickly grow in sunlight. Variation in plant functional traits related to resource acquisition is thought to predict variation in performance among species, perhaps explaining community assembly across habitats with gradients in resource availability. Many studies have found low predictive power, however, when linking trait measurements to species demographic rates. Seedlings face different challenges recruiting on the forest floor and may exhibit different traits and/or performance trade-offs than older individuals face in the eventual adult niche. Seed mass is the typical proxy for seedling success, but species also differ in cotyledon strategy (reserve vs photosynthetic) or other seedling traits. These can cause species with the same average seed mass to have divergent performance in the same habitat. We combined long-term studies of seedling dynamics with functional trait data collected at a standard developmental stage in three diverse neotropical forests to ask whether variation in coordinated suites of traits predicts variation among species in demographic performance. Across hundreds of species in Ecuador, Panama, and Puerto Rico, we found seedlings displayed correlated suites of leaf, stem, and root traits, which strongly correlated with seed mass and cotyledon strategy. Variation among species in seedling functional traits, seed mass, and cotyledon strategy were strong predictors of trade-offs in seedling growth and survival. Our findings highlight the importance of cotyledon strategy in addition to seed mass as a key component of seed and seedling biology. These results also underscore the importance of matching the ontogenetic stage of the trait measurement to the stage of demographic dynamics. Synthesis: With strikingly consistent patterns across three tropical forests, we find strong evidence for the promise of functional traits to provide mechanistic links between seedling form and demographic performance. 

Summary Climate models predict that everwet western Amazonian forests will face warmer and wetter atmospheric conditions, and increased cloud cover. It remains unclear how these changes will impact plant reproductive performance, such as flowering, which plays a central role in sustaining food webs and forest regeneration. Warmer and wetter nights may cause reduced flower production, via increased dark respiration rates or alteration in the reliability of flowering cue‐based processes. Additionally, more persistent cloud cover should reduce the amounts of solar irradiance, which could limit flower production.We tested whether interannual variation in flower production has changed in response to fluctuations in irradiance, rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity over 18 yrs in an everwet forest in Ecuador.Analyses of 184 plant species showed that flower production declined as nighttime temperature and relative humidity increased, suggesting that warmer nights and greater atmospheric water saturation negatively impacted reproduction. Species varied in their flowering responses to climatic variables but this variation was not explained by life form or phylogeny.Our results shed light on how plant communities will respond to climatic changes in this everwet region, in which the impacts of these changes have been poorly studied compared with more seasonal Neotropical areas. 

Abstract Flowering and fruiting phenology have been infrequently studied in the ever‐wet hyperdiverse lowland forests of northwestern equatorial Amazonía. These Neotropical forests are typically called aseasonal with reference to climate because they are ever‐wet, and it is often assumed they are also aseasonal with respect to phenology. The physiological limits to plant reproduction imposed by water and light availability are difficult to disentangle in seasonal forests because these variables are often temporally correlated, and both are rarely studied together, challenging our understanding of their relative importance as drivers of reproduction. Here we report on the first long‐term study (18 years) of flowering and fruiting phenology in a diverse equatorial forest, Yasuní in eastern Ecuador, and the first to include a full suite of on‐site monthly climate data. Using twice monthly censuses of 200 traps and >1000 species, we determined whether reproduction at Yasuní is seasonal at the community and species levels and analyzed the relationships between environmental variables and phenology. We also tested the hypothesis that seasonality in phenology, if present, is driven primarily by irradiance. Both the community‐ and species‐level measures demonstrated strong reproductive seasonality at Yasuní. Flowering peaked in September–November and fruiting peaked in March–April, with a strong annual signal for both phenophases. Irradiance and rainfall were also highly seasonal, even though no month on average experienced drought (a month with <100 mm rainfall). Flowering was positively correlated with current or near‐current irradiance, supporting our hypothesis that the extra energy available during the period of peak irradiance drives the seasonality of flowering at Yasuní. As Yasuní is representative of lowland ever‐wet equatorial forests of northwestern Amazonía, we expect that reproductive phenology will be strongly seasonal throughout this region. 

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of hundreds of species over small areas in tropical forest remains a challenge. Many tropical tree species are presumed to be functionally equivalent shade tolerant species but exist on a continuum of performance trade‐offs between survival in shade and the ability to quickly grow in sunlight. These trade‐offs can promote coexistence by reducing fitness differences.Variation in plant functional traits related to resource acquisition is thought to predict variation in performance among species, perhaps explaining community assembly across habitats with gradients in resource availability. Many studies have found low predictive power, however, when linking trait measurements to species demographic rates.Seedlings face different challenges recruiting on the forest floor and may exhibit different traits and/or performance trade‐offs than older individuals face in the eventual adult niche. Seed mass is the typical proxy for seedling success, but species also differ in cotyledon strategy (reserve vs. photosynthetic) or other leaf, stem and root traits. These can cause species with the same average seed mass to have divergent performance in the same habitat.We combined long‐term studies of seedling dynamics with functional trait data collected at a standard life‐history stage in three diverse neotropical forests to ask whether variation in coordinated suites of traits predicts variation among species in demographic performance.Across hundreds of species in Ecuador, Panama and Puerto Rico, we found seedlings displayed correlated suites of leaf, stem, and root traits, which strongly correlated with seed mass and cotyledon strategy. Variation among species in seedling functional traits, seed mass, and cotyledon strategy were strong predictors of trade‐offs in seedling growth and survival. These results underscore the importance of matching the ontogenetic stage of the trait measurement to the stage of demographic dynamics.Our findings highlight the importance of cotyledon strategy in addition to seed mass as a key component of seed and seedling biology in tropical forests because of the contribution of carbon reserves in storage cotyledons to reducing mortality rates and explaining the growth‐survival trade‐off among species.Synthesis: With strikingly consistent patterns across three tropical forests, we find strong evidence for the promise of functional traits to provide mechanistic links between seedling form and demographic performance.